4Q FY08 EPS dropped 26% y/y to RMB(0.28); impacted by lower shipments and fall in ASP
Factors impacting earnings:
Ø Rapid deceleration in revenue growth due to lower shipments and declining ASP. Revenues were up by just 21% y/y to RMB 1,761 M compared to an average quarterly growth of 155% during the past three quarters.
Ø Shipments declined 1.5% q/q to 78.8 MW, while ASP dropped 17% y/y and 21% q/q to $3.19. The sequential decline in both shipments and ASP was driven by weakened demand, changes in the feed-in tariff policy in Spain and tighter credit for PV system project financing. ASP was also negatively impacted by the depreciation of the Euro against the Renminbi.
Ø Operating margin plunged 1200 bps y/y to 6%. Research and development expenses increased to 1.32% of sales from 0.10% in the year-ago quarter
Earnings were supported by:
Ø Foreign currency gains of RMB 68 M compared to a loss of RMB 29 M in the year-ago quarter
Ø Tax benefit of RMB 17 M in the current quarter compared to income tax expense of RMB 15 M in the year-ago quarter
Guidance-the company expects:
For FY09
Ø PV module shipment to be in the range of 550-600 MW; an increase of 96-114% compared to FY08. The company has about 317 MW of contracts in place for FY09, the German market will account for 55-60% and the rest of the European countries will account for 20-25%
Ø Gross margin to be in the range of 22-24%
Ø Blended polysilicon cost to approximate $130-150 per kilo
For 1Q FY09
Ø PV module shipment to be lower than Q4 FY08 due to weakened macroeconomic conditions, winter season in Germany, and lower level activities in the Spanish market
Ø ASP to decline by approx. 10-15% from 4Q FY08 levels
Ø Gross margin to be above 15% due to a 20-25% decline in blended polysilicon cost from 4Q FY08 levels, and due to reduced polysilicon usage per watt
Data source: Gridstone Research
No comments:
Post a Comment